Friday, January 25, 2013

Nepalese RMG Industry: Reviving the lost glory



From the heights of 1999/2000, when the total RMG export was about NRs 12 billion to the lows of 2011/2012, when the total RMG export was NRs 4.05 billion, Nepalese RMG industry has continuously loosing international market to African and the South Asian manufacturers. One of the major damage was due to the removal of duty-free and quota-free access to its market by the then largest importer of Nepalese RMG – USA in 2004. Add to this, USA gave special preference to RMGs from African nations. The exports of RMG from Nepal declined sharply during this period, i.e. NRs 12 billion in 2002/2003 to NRs 6.7 billion in 2004/2005, with almost all the decline in the US market.
Picture Source: http://ekantipur.com

To sustain, Nepalese RMG industry searched for other markets where it enjoyed preferential treatment. Japan, Canada and the EU market were the places to go. All these markets gave preferential treatment to the garment exports from Nepal. But, the industry must be cautious in terms of serving these markets. Japan and Canada could be just another USA. On the other hand, EU policies are very less subject to changes. Also, the EU gives special treatment to Nepal, along with Laos, through the derogation facility – the products needn’t fulfill the stringent criteria of rules of origin in order to get the duty-free access to the market. Another advantage of putting a lot of effort in this market is the sheer size of it – population of over 500 million.

But, the industry should take the treatment as only the stepping stone to these markets. In order to sustain and grow in the market, the industry has to build its core competency and build its competitiveness as soon as possible. One of the most important features of the industry is that it can provide the quality preferred by the customers at the lowest prices. Another major advantage is that the customers trust Nepalese manufacturer over their South Asian counterparts due to past experiences.

In order to make an impact in the European market, the RMG industry has to be able to partner with bigger retail chains and deliver their large orders – running in millions of pieces. But, due to regular load shedding, requirement of large labor force which would give rise to stronger unions flexing their muscle, irregular raw material supply and no standards on quality of end products which result in rejection of orders after they are shipped to the markets, the garment producers haven’t been able to accept and deliver large orders.

Strengthening the existing association – Garment Association of Nepal (GAN) in order to share risks and opportunities among the members, should be able to solve the issues. GAN should act as a virtual company with the members acting as its satellite plants. The volume of raw material from the suppliers would be massive if the members acquired from GAN, which in turn purchased from the suppliers. This would increase the bargaining power of the purchasers and thus the timely delivery of materials with consistent quality would be possible. Also, taking huge orders from the European retailers would be possible, with GAN dividing the orders among the members as per their competency. Developing quality standards for the products and the production process by the association would remove the possibility of the customers rejecting the orders after they have reached Europe. Also, collaborative shipping would be possible. Huge volume of shipments would also mean lower costs via the concept of economies of scale. 

These activities would sharpen the core competency of the industry, i.e. to provide quality at lowest prices. This will not just enable the industry to sustain in the European market but also grow there and in other markets, reviving the lost glory of the industry.


(The article is based on the research done by a group (named Kanzen) of MBA 3rd term students of KU School Management, as per the requirements of their course – Global Business Management)
 

Wednesday, October 24, 2012

Stay away from the stock market


The meaning of investment has been corrupted for over a century now. Investing was like sowing seeds in the garden in the anticipation that one day a big plant will grow and give fruits. But, the continuous introduction of complex financial tools combined with the changing mentality of investors has redefined the notion of investment. 
Investors are more focused on the short-term gains. They are more interested in the information available in the market rather than scrutinizing financial statements of the companies. Rumor sways the market more than the actual information. Companies are made and burnt just based on the common perception. And, this perception rarely has anything to do with the financial or qualitative analysis of the company.
Stock market has been a place for betting. Majority of people participating in the stock market are speculators and not investors. Add to that, the availability of derivatives markets and complex financial tools, stock market has been a heaven for gamblers. Hedging has been very prominent in the recent times.  Many analysts believe that the scale of 2008 recession can very well be attributed to hedging. We had the case of hedging by J.P. Morgan Chase to bring down share prices of strong companies. Such unethical acts combined with irrational investors create huge signaling effect in the market. At times, shares of even strong companies are brought down. And at times, shares of even non-existent companies are purchased at huge prices. Unethical nature of companies and the irrational behavior of investors have made the stock market ever so vulnerable. 
Even shrewd knowledge of finance can’t help. The very assumption of almost all the financial theories that a market is composed of rational investors is wrong in the real market. The behavior of market and the participants is so diverse that no theory can sum it up. Many times, there are no relations between a company’s performance and its share prices.
Another aspect of the market is that, contrary to the mass belief, the market is not efficient. Even the advanced stock market of USA is not efficient. How do you explain the market crashes of 2007-2008 and 2001-2002? And the Asian crisis of 1997. What sort of efficient market needs such huge “corrections”? None.
So, if no one can understand the behavior of the market, how wise is it to invest in the market? You can spend hours analyzing the financial sheets, the corporate governance and the future growth prospects, but what if that information doesn’t really impact the share prices? What are your chances to succeed in the market when you are the only rational investors and all others speculate? Some may argue that on the long run, the market does value the shares correctly. But, what is the guarantee that you will live to see that? It may take years for the market to value shares as per its intrinsic value. It may never happen at all.
So, my advice is stay away from the stock market. Rather invest in small companies as a seed investor. Grow with the company. Be involved in the company. Nurture it, care for it, scrutinize the performance, evaluate the growth, and analyze the prospects….Invest for long term. It’s better to understand and participate in the growth of few companies rather than speculate wildly on numerous companies in the irrational market.